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总结
文章综合《经济学人》及路透等对伊朗抗议与政权稳定的分析，认为社会撕裂与经济压力令统治合法性受冲击，但流亡反对派内部亦存在路线与领导权分歧，外部力量能施加的影响有限。文中讨论若现政权突然崩溃，可能引发权力真空、武装力量重新站队及过渡安排争夺，核计划、制裁与对邻国代理组织政策面临不确定，进而推升海湾与中东安全风险并考验美欧外交选项。同时，政权更迭可能带来与以色列、沙特的缓和或升级两种路径；若失序延长，难民外溢、航运与能源市场波动也将扩大国际冲击。
正文
What the collapse of Iran's regime would mean The Economist Iran protests show bitter schism among exiled opposition factions Reuters Iran's Revolution Tablet Magazine Opinion | Iran's regime has already lost its most potent weapon MS NOW Iran and the Limits of American Power Foreign Affairs
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