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总结
多家媒体报道，在预测市场Polymarket上，有交易者围绕“委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被抓捕/下台”的结果押注并获利约40万美元以上，其中一笔盈利被称达43.6万美元。由于下注时点、仓位集中与收益异常，该交易被质疑可能利用内幕信息，引发对预测市场是否助长内幕交易、信息披露与监管边界的讨论，也凸显政治事件与金融化押注交织下的市场公正与合规风险。
正文
A $400,000 profit on Maduro's capture raises insider trading questions on Polymarket NPR A prediction market user made $436,000 from bets on Maduro's downfall BBC Mystery trader garners $400,000-plus windfall on Maduro's capture Reuters US traders make big profits betting on Maduro's capture in January The Guardian $30,000 Maduro bet sparks debate over insider trading in prediction markets Axios
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