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总结
《卫报》等报道称，美国一些交易者在加密预测市场Polymarket押注“委内瑞拉总统马杜罗将于1月被捕/被美方控制”等结果并获得高额回报，个别账户据称盈利达数十万美元。由于相关交易发生在美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动、政局高度不确定的背景下，舆论质疑平台上可能存在利用内幕信息提前下注与操纵市场。事件推动美国国会讨论出台法案，拟限制或禁止预测市场内幕交易，凸显地缘冲突被金融化带来的合规与伦理风险。
正文
US traders make big profits betting on Maduro's capture in January The Guardian Lucrative online trades on Maduro ouster spur new bill to ban Polymarket insider trading Axios Was Someone Insider Trading Right Before Trump's Attack on Venezuela? The New Republic Monetizing Regime Change The American Prospect A Polymarket Account Made $400K on Maduro's Capture. A Small Corner of the Internet Thinks It's Barron Trump Yahoo
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