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总结
针对“巴伦·特朗普因提前获知美方将抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗而在预测市场内幕交易赚40万美元”的说法，事实核查指出该指控缺乏可核验证据，主要源自匿名账户在加密预测市场相关赌局中的获利记录被误读与拼接传播。报道梳理多家媒体对“马杜罗被捕/美方入侵委内瑞拉”等盘口争议、平台拒付与规则矛盾的讨论，强调传闻借助特朗普家族话题性与加密市场匿名性快速扩散，也引发对信息披露、平台治理与网络谣言监管的关注。
正文
Why unverified claim Barron Trump made $400K from insider trading on Maduro capture spread online Snopes A lucrative bet on the Venezuela raid revealed a strange contradiction in prediction markets Business Insider Anonymous crypto gambler made $436,000 on Maduro capture BBC Polymarket refuses to pay bets that US would 'invade' Venezuela Financial Times Traders Bet on the U.S.'s Next Airstrike Target The Wall Street Journal
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