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总结
多家媒体报道，在美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动并出现“马杜罗被抓获”进展后，加密预测市场Polymarket上出现押注规模异常的交易。一名神秘账户据称曾以约3万美元重注马杜罗被捕，并在事件发生后获得累计40万美元以上收益。部分线索被指向与特朗普政府相关人士，引发外界对预测市场是否易被内幕信息利用、是否需要更强信息披露与监管框架的争论，也凸显政治与地缘冲突事件在此类平台上的套利风险。
正文
There's Compelling Evidence That Someone Connected to the Trump Administration Profited Off the Invasion of Venezuela by Placing Large Bets on Polymarket Futurism $30,000 Maduro bet sparks debate over prediction markets' insider trading exposure Axios Mystery trader garners $400,000-plus windfall on Maduro's capture Reuters A $400,000 profit on Maduro's capture raises insider trading questions on Polymarket NPR US traders make big profits betting on Maduro's capture in January The Guardian
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