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总结
围绕委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗被捕后，某预测市场向押注者支付约40万美元奖金，多家媒体称这一结算事件让“预测市场”重新进入公众视野。报道提到相关平台被用于押注地缘政治与安全事件，甚至出现对美国下一次空袭目标等敏感议题的交易；同时也爆出平台就“美国将入侵委内瑞拉”等赌盘拒绝赔付的纠纷。事件凸显此类市场在信息核验、操纵风险与监管边界上的争议与外溢影响。
正文
A $400,000 payout after Maduro's capture is putting prediction markets in the spotlight Yahoo Finance A $400,000 payout after Maduro's capture is putting prediction markets in the spotlight AP News Maduro Could Have Avoided His Capture Entirely if He Had Checked This App Slate Traders Bet on the U.S.'s Next Airstrike Target - WSJ The Wall Street Journal Polymarket refuses to pay bets that US would 'invade' Venezuela Financial Times
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