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总结
《华盛顿邮报》称，伊朗反对派虽持续寻求撼动并替换现有统治结构，但受制于内部派系分裂、组织松散与缺乏统一领导，难以把社会抗议与不满转化为可执行的政治路线与替代方案。多家媒体同期评估伊朗政权韧性与未来走向，认为威权体制常呈现“长期渐变、临界点骤变”的崩塌特征，但伊朗目前仍未到达决定性拐点；即便出现“到期日”，权力交接、改革或更大动荡的路径仍高度不确定，并可能外溢影响地区安全与对外关系。
正文
Iran's opposition is battling to oust the rulers but hobbled by divisions The Washington Post Jeremy Bowen: Authoritarian regimes die gradually then suddenly, but Iran is not there yet BBC If Iran's government now has an 'expiration date,' what next? NPR The Islamic Republic Will Not Last The Atlantic 'The Ayatollah Has No Clothes': What Iran's Historic Protests Mean For The Future Of The Regime Forbes
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