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总结
《好莱坞报道者》在奥斯卡提名公布前、投票临近截止的窗口期，尝试用“只靠数学”的方法预测今年各奖项可能入围者：依据往年提名与获奖的统计规律、类型片与发行档期的偏好、前哨奖与行业口碑等可量化信号，给出候选影片与主创的概率排序，并提示预测并非定论。文章同时对照《综艺》《纽约时报》等媒体关于匿名选票与影评人预测的报道，指出最佳影片等赛道仍可能出现意外与逆袭，反映今年竞争格局的不确定性与讨论热度。
正文
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