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总结
围绕美国称已抓获马杜罗及委内瑞拉局势可能升级的消息，媒体与机构开始重新评估委内瑞拉原油能否回流以及对油价的影响。分析认为，若制裁被放松、港口与航运恢复，委内瑞拉重质原油增加将缓解美国墨西哥湾炼厂原料紧缺，压缩重油溢价并对布伦特/WTI形成下行压力；但冲突升级与政局动荡可能引发停产、保险与物流成本上升，反而推升风险溢价，油价区间或在增供与地缘风险之间拉扯。
正文
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