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总结
CNN等多家媒体评论聚焦伊朗局势下一步走向，认为在对外冲突风险上升、核问题与地区代理人矛盾未解的背景下，伊朗可能出现战争升级、外交谈判缓和，或国内抗议演变为更大规模政治动荡等情景。文章并讨论政权以“恐惧”维稳的能力是否正在减弱、若发生政权崩溃对地区安全与国际外交格局的潜在影响，以及国家碎片化可能带来的持续不确定性。
正文
War, diplomacy, or revolt: What comes next in Iran? CNN Iran has a long history of violent suppression, but this time may be different NBC News Opinion | Iran's Regime Is Losing Its Greatest Weapon: Fear The New York Times What the collapse of Iran's regime would mean The Economist Opinion | A Fractured Iran Might Not Be So Bad The Wall Street Journal
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