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总结
该文以Tablet Magazine等多家媒体评论为线索，讨论伊朗伊斯兰共和国政权的稳定性与反对派处境。文章认为，政权在社会动员、意识形态号召力等方面的优势正在削弱，但其安全机构、强制力与体制韧性仍使其未到“突然崩塌”的阶段。多篇观点同时指出，反对派虽持续寻求推动变革，却受组织分裂、缺乏统一领导与策略不一致所困。整体分析将伊朗内部政治走向与地区安全、对外关系及西方政策选择相联系，提示未来不确定性上升。
正文
Iran's Revolution Tablet Magazine Opinion | Iran's regime has already lost its most potent weapon MS NOW Jeremy Bowen: Authoritarian regimes die gradually then suddenly, but Iran is not there yet BBC Iran's opposition is battling to oust regime but hobbled by divisions The Washington Post The Islamic Republic Will Not Last The Atlantic
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