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总结
报道指出，如今原油市场对战争、制裁等地缘政治冲击的价格反应减弱，更多由供需基本面、库存与产能调节主导，使波动被“钝化”。多家媒体与市场人士预计，原油价格到2026年仍可能被限制在每桶约65美元附近。此前被视为“最后利空”的委内瑞拉因素减弱，但伊朗与委内瑞拉潜在供应变化、政策与制裁走向仍可能重新施压或扰动供需，能源市场需持续关注若干关键地缘风险点。
正文
Not Your Father's Oil Market: Geopolitical Shocks Lack Impact The Wall Street Journal Venezuela, Iran Could Further Pressure Oil Prices in 2026 Barron's Four Geopolitical Flashpoints Energy Markets Cannot Ignore in 2026 Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com The last bearish overhang for crude - Venezuela - is now gone. Why one trader says oil will follow in gold's footsteps. MarketWatch Crude oil prices may remain capped near $65 a barrel through 2026, says Geoffrey Dennis CNBC TV18
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