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总结
多家美媒指出，美国预测市场（如Polymarket）近来快速升温，从总统选举、国际冲突到宏观数据等事件都可下注，市场价格被一些人当作“实时民调”。部分参与者辞职全职交易，大学生和青少年也被吸引入场。华尔街机构开始雇佣交易员介入以获取信息优势。舆论担忧监管滞后、合规边界模糊、信息操纵与洗钱风险，并可能影响选举叙事、加剧投机并冲击金融稳定。
正文
All Bets Are On: The Rise of Prediction Markets The New York Times America Is Slow-Walking Into a Polymarket Disaster The Atlantic They quit their day jobs to bet on current events. A look inside the prediction market mania NPR College students and teens could be fueling the prediction markets boom CNBC Wall Street groups hire traders to wade into prediction markets Financial Times
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