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总结
一项发表于科普媒体报道的理论研究提出“CRASH Clock”概念，用于衡量近地轨道在卫星数量激增背景下距离发生连锁碰撞的“临界时间”。模型推算在特定假设下，轨道卫星可能在不足3天内进入相互撞击并产生碎片级联的风险区间，进而影响通信与导航服务、航天任务安全，并加剧对天文观测与射频环境的干扰。研究呼吁通过减缓发射节奏、主动清除碎片、改进避碰与加强国际治理来降低系统性风险。
正文
Orbiting satellites could start crashing into one another in less than 3 days, theoretical new 'CRASH Clock' reveals Live Science Mitigating pollution from satellite RF transmissions theregister.com Order Or Collision: RAND Warns Space Is Heading for a Dangerous Tipping Point Orbital Today As satellite population surges, so does the impact on astronomy Physics Today Satellite overload: astronomers look to UN to preserve the night sky Geneva Solutions
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