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总结
多家媒体围绕“委内瑞拉相关押注”集中报道预测市场平台Polymarket的争议：部分赌局涉及“美国将入侵委内瑞拉”或“马杜罗被推翻/下台”等政治与安全敏感情景，平台被指在结果出现后拒绝或延迟兑付，并出现神秘大额下注者疑似套利的说法。报道指出，该事件暴露出预测市场在信息不对称、可被操纵的交易结构、结算与仲裁标准不透明等问题，也提示此类平台在地缘政治议题上面临更严监管与公信力受损风险。
正文
The Venezuela Polymarket Scandal Is Looking Really Bad Futurism The Polymarket Bets on Maduro Are a Warning The Atlantic A lucrative bet on the Venezuela raid revealed a strange contradiction in prediction markets Business Insider Polymarket refuses to pay bets that US would 'invade' Venezuela Financial Times How a mystery gambler scored big on Maduro's ouster The Washington Post
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