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总结
多家媒体报道，预测市场在美国快速升温，围绕选举、政策与突发事件的合约交易吸引大量散户参与，并出现“辞职下注”式投机热潮。华尔街机构也开始招聘或安排专门交易员进入此类市场，寻求信息套利与对冲机会。以Robinhood与Kalshi等平台的产品化与分销能力为推手，预测市场从小众走向大众化，同时引发对合规边界、操纵风险、信息披露与投资者保护的讨论，其热度与争议正同步上升。
正文
Trading prediction markets and making money. What's the big deal? (HOOD:NASDAQ) Seeking Alpha Wall Street groups hire traders to wade into prediction markets Financial Times They quit their day jobs to bet on current events. A look inside the prediction market mania NPR College students and teens could be fueling the prediction markets boom CNBC The Democratization of Destiny: How Robinhood and Kalshi Mainstreamed Prediction Markets FinancialContent
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